Revolution, in order to be creative, cannot do without either a moral or metaphysical rule to balance the insanity of history.”

~ Albert Camus

Devastation during WWII Japan was devastated during World War II (1941-45). The human loss amounted to 1.85 million (about 4% of the entire population) and 680 thousand injured or missing. The material loss amounted to about 25% of national wealth excluding military stock (Economic Stabilization Board report of 1949). Another estimate of the death toll was 2.8 million

Phase I: Postwar Reconstruction and Catch-up Phase I of the economic development after WWII was from 1945 through the 1960s. Phase II: Era of Transition and the ‘Bubble Economy’ In phase II (early 1970s—late 1980s), the Japanese economy caught up with other industrial economies in the world Phase III Lost Decade and Beyond In phase III (the 1990s and on), Now Japan’s GDP of over $ 5.1 trillion world third largest by nominal.

The idea behind sharing a brief outlook on Japanese revolution that is to learn that how they came up from difficult situation after World War II, and where we stand after 71 years for that we need to compare few indicators with our potential resources that are as follows:

Pakistan current account deficit reached to US$18.1billion as year end of 2018.

Pakistan external debts soar to US$96 billion.

SBP’s foreign exchange reserves declined by US$ 6.9 billion in beginning of the year 2019, this led to increased pressure on the PKR, which depreciated by 13.8 percent against the US dollar.

Circular debt rose to 755billion PKR.

Gross public debt reached Rs 26.42 Trillion by now showing an increase by 9%.

Potential/Resources of Pakistan:

230 km off Karachi coast for exploration of oil and gas reserves estimated 500 million barrel oil at least, as per Bloomberg reports.

Rekodiq Gold Mine in Baluchistan estimated value US$200billion .

Thar Desert in Sindh possesses the country’s biggest coal reserves of 185 billion tons.

About 28% of Pakistan’s total land area is under cultivation. Pakistan boasts one of the largest irrigation systems in the world.

Pakistan has large gold/copper ore deposits at Saindak. There are large deposits of rock salt in the Pothohar Plateau. Pakistan’s mineral resources include reserves of gypsum, limestone, chromites, iron ore, rock salt, silver, precious stones, gems, marbles, tiles, sulfur, fire clay, and silica sand.

Along with China we do have trade and investment opportunities from countries Like Kingdom of Saudia Arabia, Russia, UAE.

Probable remedies & Outlook:

Pakistan’s growth continues to accelerate but macroeconomic imbalances are widening. Macroeconomic stability is a major concern for the near-term economic outlook. Pakistan’s GDP growth increased by 0.8 percentage points over the previous year to reach 5.8 percent in FY18.

Solutions may be to reduced imports on luxuries items but cannot be realistic because if domestic products could not compete with international products for now it can only be taxed.

Local industries should be given tax cuts’ in order to compete with competitors like Bangladesh, India in international market.

Small medium enterprises should be encouraged through crowd funding, other joint ventures.

Exxon Mobil and ENI are working on exploration at Karachi coast and if it will get succeeded along with $10 billion oil refineries in gwadar, Pakistan could become top 10 oil producing country of world, concurrently Reko dik case in international court awaiting to solve.

Due to the legacy with current government setup with some the of news channel they may not create hype about news like oil reserves, coal reserves Reko dik and foreign direct investment after 11 years time, but we have to have believe in ourselves to achieve better outcomes, because nationalism/patriotism is the way to cope with the difficult economic & political situation.

 

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